Is the Crypto Market Over?
Market Snapshot
The week from November 10th to 16th was rough. BTC ~ $96k, ETH ~ $3,200. Alts fell 10–15% within 24h. Over the last month, the total crypto market cap dropped by more than $1T.
Biggest 24h decliners in the top-100: IP, AERO, JUP, PENGU, AAVE, ENA, FET, RENDER, SUI.
Another Round of Spot ETF Outflows
On Nov 12, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $277,980,000; Ethereum ETFs recorded $183,770,000 in net outflows.
Liquidations and Positioning
On Nov 14, more than $1B in long positions was liquidated.
Over the past 30 days, long-term holders (LTH) sold around 815k BTC — the highest since Jan 2024. Demand weakened as selling pressure increased.
Bitcoin and the Stock Market
A new Wintermute report notes the BTC–Nasdaq-100 correlation ≈ 0.8. Synchronization is stronger on the way down than on the way up — BTC tends to move with equities mainly when things go wrong. Analysts add that this negative asymmetry historically appears closer to bottoms, not tops.
MSTR: From Premium to Discount
MicroStrategy (MSTR) long traded at a premium to its “bitcoin NAV” (BTC on the balance sheet ± operating business − debt per share) — but now trades at a discount.
Why it flipped: spot ETFs offer cheaper, cleaner exposure; MSTR carries leverage/issuances tied to BTC purchases; and in risk-off phases investors avoid extra layers and complexity.
Hyperliquid × POPCAT
For the third time, Hyperliquid sits at the center of a high-profile incident. A trader moved $3M from OKX to Hyperliquid, aggressively longed POPCAT, placed a ~$30M buy wall at $0.21, then suddenly removed it.
Result: the price crashed, longs were wiped, the trader’s collateral was lost, and the HLP liquidity system took ~$5M in losses. Deposits/withdrawals were paused temporarily.
Cascading liquidations followed.
XRP ETF Sets Trading Records
Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) posted $58M in first-day volume — more than any other ETF launched in 2025 (out of 900 new funds).
What to Watch Next Week
- Flows into BTC/ETH ETFs and XRPC volumes
- Pace of LTH selling and derivatives open interest
- MSTR/NAV spread and any corporate actions (issuances/buybacks)
- Updates on Hyperliquid/POPCAT and broader infra risk
- Any signals from the Fed / U.S. budget process